In case you missed it, on Saturday Punxsutawney Phil predicted 6-more weeks of winter. Every February 2 Ground Hog Day allows for a little fun with long range forecasting. Awakened at sunrise, the 15-pound woodchuck is held up to the crowd on Gobbler's Knob. Legend has it that if it's overcast and the Ground Hog doesn't see his shadow, winter will come to a quick end. If the sun is out and a shadow is cast, 6-more weeks of winter will ensue.
While it's all done in fun and is certainly a way to break up the winter in Pennsylvania it's not a very accurate forecast. Researchers have determined Phil's is only correct about 38% of the time. Animals do have a highly developed sense of weather for short term forecasts. Perhaps 1-3 hours, but no scientific study has been able to link animal behavior to long range weather patterns. So the rings of wooly caterpillar, the bushiness of squirrel's tail or the shadow of a ground hog won't help you with long range plans. And besides, with our recent mild weather 6-more weeks this wouldn't seem like winter anyway.

Mike Wankum
Meteorologist
WCVB-TV